Dynasty value shifts rapidly after free agency, creating buy-low opportunities for savvy managers. Here are five players to target in trades and why the market is getting them wrong.
Photo: Gabriel Christus / Denver Broncos
Free agency is where fantasy football players' values get warped. New signings create hype, depth charts are drastically altered, and managers project massive leaps or steep declines despite incomplete information. This uncertainty is exactly where savvy fantasy managers gain an edge. Instead of chasing the obvious winners, the goal is to identify players whose roles are more secure than the market indicates.
Here are five players you should be targeting aggressively in trades after free agency, and what it will likely take to get them (advice based on league being a 1qb, no superflex, .5ppr).
While we break down five trade targets below, free agency isn’t done shifting dynasty value just yet. Joe Sheffield highlights five remaining free agents who could still make a major impact depending on where they land.
David Montgomery continues to be one of the most reliable and overlooked running backs in fantasy football. Despite producing year after year, he rarely carries the perceived value of a true RB1 or even a high-end RB2.
Montgomery thrives in high-value touches. He dominates goal-line work and consistently gets carries in situations directly translating to fantasy points. Even if the Texans add depth during free agency or via the NFL draft in April, his role as a physical, between-the-tackles runner is undoubtedly safe. Coaches trust him, and that trust leads to touchdowns.
He’s also game-script proof to a degree. While he may not be a heavy pass-catcher, his red zone role keeps him relevant even in lower-volume games.
Since Jahmyr Gibbs is out of the picture, expect Montgomery to prove his value and absolutely dominate the carries for the Texans’ offense. Woody Marks is relevant. However, with Montgomery on board Marks will be more of a change of pace type of back or be utilized more in the passing game than as a runner. Montgomery wants to showcase to the league Detroit made a mistake diminishing his role which led him to demand a trade.
Managers often fear younger, more explosive backs eating into his workload, which artificially lowers his value.
Jaylen Waddle is the definition of a player whose real-life impact doesn’t always match his week-to-week fantasy perception.
Waddle is an elite separator with game-breaking speed, capable of turning limited touches into massive fantasy production. The issue? Perceived inconsistency. Sharing an offense with other high-end weapons can lead to volatility, but that volatility creates buying windows.
With Denver’s better than average receiving corps, Waddle can potentially be the missing piece to propel the offense into the elite conversation. If defenses are forced to respect all of Denver’s wide receivers, Waddle’s ceiling becomes league-winning. He doesn’t need 12 targets to drop 25 fantasy points. Waddle's efficiency is just waiting to be unlocked. He showed glimpses of what that could be in Miami with Tua. Look for Bo Nix and Sean Payton to show off their shiny new toy, early and often. If they build chemistry quickly, this could spell disaster for opposing defenses.
Managers get frustrated with boom/bust production and often prefer safer, lower-ceiling receivers.
Isaiah Likely is one of the most intriguing breakout candidates at the tight end position and one of the easiest to acquire.
Likely showed flashes of a dynamic receiving tight end with the Ravens. When given extended opportunities, he’s already produced like a top-tier option. If free agency doesn’t bring in serious pass catching competition, or if the offense leans into multi-tight end sets, his role could expand quickly.
Theo Johnson will surely be very involved in the Giants’ offense. But John Harbaugh brought Likely in for a reason. Likely’s familiarity with Harbaugh's schemes and terminology will certainly give him an edge early on.
In fantasy, tight end is about upside. Outside of the elite few, you’re chasing players who can separate from the pack. Likely fits that mold perfectly with his size and athleticism. Look for
Harbaugh to give Likely plenty of opportunities as a pass catcher this season. Harbaugh favored tight ends in the passing game. He is likely to try and replicate that in New York with Jaxson Dart.
Likely is still viewed as a secondary option or “stash,” which keeps his price well below his potential ceiling.
Kyler Murray is one of the premier buy-low quarterbacks in fantasy football right now.
Murray’s dual-threat ability gives him a weekly ceiling very few quarterbacks can match. His rushing production alone provides a strong fantasy floor, and when paired with efficient passing, he becomes a top-tier option.
Free agency could be critical for the Vikings this off season, and any improvements to the offensive line or receiving corps should immediately boost his outlook. Even small upgrades can have a massive impact on a mobile quarterback’s efficiency and health.
It’s not guaranteed Kyler opens the year as the Vikings starter. However, reports indicate they currently have little confidence in J.J. McCarthy. Although it is unlikely they will abandon the young quarterback, he will need to show significant improvement this off season during OTA’s and training camp if he wants to open the year as the starter.
Look for Kevin O’Connell to favor the veteran in Kyler Murray. Signing Murray indicates they might be setting J.J. McCarthy aside for the time being. Murray will have a great cast of playmakers to work with and could have a career year under O’Connell’s tutelage.
Injuries and team inconsistency tend to scare off managers, pushing them toward safer but less dynamic options.
Mike Evans is the poster child for veteran undervaluation in fantasy football.
Year after year, Evans produces Fantasy points from Touchdowns, steady yardage, and big plays. It doesn’t matter who his quarterback is or what the narrative says. He delivers time after time. Yet every offseason, fantasy managers try to “get ahead” of the age curve and move off players like him far too early.
After free agency, if the 49ers offensive situation stabilizes or improves, Evans remains a locked-in weekly starter with massive upside. He’s especially valuable for contending teams needing reliable production without paying elite prices.
Evans has a huge opportunity this year as the clear #1 option for Brock Purdy. Jennings' loss via free agency leaves Evans atop the depth chart with Ricky Pearsall as his only real competition. Kyle Shanahan is known to pepper one alpha wide receiver with most of the targets. Look for Christian McCaffrey to maintain his role and touches in the offense, but with George Kittle’s status unknown for the start of the year, this could spell a league winning amount of target share for Mike Evans.
Age bias. Many Managers prefer to gamble on youth rather than trusting proven production.
The key to winning in fantasy football, especially after free agency, is understanding perception versus reality. While the market chases hype and overreacts to depth chart changes, smart managers target stability, upside, and proven production at a discount.
David Montgomery offers reliability.
Jaylen Waddle brings explosive upside.
Isaiah Likely represents breakout potential.
Kyler Murray provides league-winning QB upside.
Mike Evans delivers consistent veteran production.
If you can acquire even two of these players at market value or below, you’re putting yourself in a strong position to dominate your league heading into the season.
For more dynasty analysis like this, check out our other dynasty articles and dynasty rankings.
