A breakdown of the top five Pittsburgh Steelers contracts most at risk under Mike McCarthy, using cap impact and roster context to explain who could be on the move.
After the Steelers disappointing Wild Card playoff game against the Houston Texans, Mike Tomlin decided to step down as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers after 19 seasons. Tomlin exits with a record of 201-112-2, and no losing seasons, a remarkable achievement over 19 seasons.
The next man up as the Steelers head coach is Mike McCarthy, who is only the Steelers 4th head coach since 1969 and 17th head coach in their history. I was surprised by this hire; I really thought the Steelers would hire a young defensive coordinator. I wonder if the Steelers made this move in order to get Aaron Rodgers to come back for at least one more season, as the Steelers still do not have a clear quarterback for the future. They have an older roster, so rolling with a young quarterback like Will Howard doesn’t really make sense. It will be interesting to see what Mike McCarthy’s vision is for this roster. Below are four players most likely not to be on the roster next season, along with one surprise name you may not expect.
Mason Rudolph was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 3rd round (76th overall) during the 2018 NFL Draft. Rudolph has basically been a career long backup quarterback. The most games that he has played in a season is 10, which was his second year in the NFL. That year he threw for 1,765 yards, 13 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and a completion percentage of 62.2%.
Once again Rudolph finds himself entering his last year of a contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers that he signed in the 2025 free agency period. According to Spotrac, Rudolph’s cap hit for the 2026 season is scheduled to be $4.6 million. If the Steelers were to release Rudolph, they could save $3 million in cap space. The Steelers are currently projected to have around $45 million in cap space, which we would expect the NFL salary cap to increase with the new league year. With the Steelers lacking offensive weapons and most of the key players already under contract, it would not be surprising to see them move on from Rudolph and free up $3 million in cap space, especially if Will Howard is developed as a backup option. Based on our contract risk meter tool, we list Rudolph as a high risk.
Jonnu Smith was acquired by the Pittsburgh Steelers from the Miami Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick and a 2027 5th round pick. After Smith was acquired by the Steelers, they signed him to a one year $12 million dollar extension, with $7.7 million guaranteed by way of a signing bonus. Jonnu Smith played in all 17 games in 2025, catching 38 passes on 54 targets, for 222 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
Jonnu Smith now enters the final year of his contract with the Steelers. According to Spotrac, his cap hit for the 2026 season is scheduled to be around $10.8 million. If the Steelers were to release Jonnu Smith, they would save $7 million in cap space. The Steelers have young tight ends on the roster already with Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington who had a breakout year this past season. I expect the Steelers to release Jonnu Smith and take the $7 million savings in cap space, and based on our contract risk meter tool we have Smith as a high risk.
Cameron Heyward has been a mainstay at defensive tackle for the Pittsburgh Steelers since being drafted by the Steelers in the 1st round (31st overall) in the 2011 NFL Draft. Even in his 15th season, Heyward was a productive player with 38 solo tackles, 40 assisted tackles, 3.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble playing in all 17 games even at age 35. Heyward is the heart and soul of that Steelers defense, could the Steelers really move on from him?
Heyward is now entering the final year of his contract, and according to Spotrac the Steelers have a potential out in his contract if they want to take advantage. Heyward is scheduled to have a cap hit of $19.1 million in 2026. If the Steelers were to release Heyward before the new league year opens on March 12th or a Post June-1st designation they would save about $14.2 million in cap space. Based on how much cap space the Steelers have, and the fact that they hired an older coach in Mike McCarthy, I would be surprised if the Steelers were to release Heyward. Not saying it still isn’t possible, as there are surprise cap casualties every year but definitely more unlikely in my opinion. When we assessed the risk of these players the head coach had not been hired yet, and we assumed (based on the history of the Steelers) they would bring in a younger coach. Which is what led us to listing Cam Heyward as a high risk, on our contract risk meter tool.
Patrick Queen signed a 3 year $41 million dollar contract, including a $11.5 million signing bonus, $13.8 million guaranteed during the 2024 free agency period. Queen picked a great time to have one of his best seasons in the final year of his rookie deal with the Ravens with 84 solo tackles, 49 assisted tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 interception. This led him to getting paid by the Steelers the following offseason.
Patrick Queen is now entering the final year of that 3 year deal that he signed with the Steelers. According to Spotrac, his cap hit for the 2026 season is scheduled to be $17.1 million. If the Steelers were to release Queen before the new league year opens on March 12th, or if they designate him as a Post June-1st cut, the Steelers would save about $13.3 million in cap space. With the lack of depth at linebacker and Queen turning 27 shortly before the 2026 season starts, I would be surprised if Queen gets released. He is still pretty young and Queen should still have a few more productive seasons left in him. Again, before the McCarthy hire, I thought there was a higher chance that they could move on from Queen, as NFL teams don’t seem to be prioritizing the linebacker position like they used to. Which is why based on our contract risk meter tool, we have him listed as a high risk.
The Steelers big splash of the 2025 offseason was acquiring superstar wide receiver DK Metcalf from the Seattle Seahawks. The Steelers received DK Metcalf and a 2025 6th round pick (185th overall) for a 2025 2nd round pick (52nd overall) and a 2025 7th round pick (223rd overall). Metcalf also signed a 4 year 132 million dollar extension with the Steelers, including a $30 million signing bonus, and $60 million guaranteed.
Metcalf’s first season with the Steelers was underwhelming. As the clear #1 receiver, I thought he would be more involved in this offense. He had 59 receptions on 99 targets, for 850 yards, and 6 touchdowns in 15 games played in 2025. He also only had one game where he had double digit targets. The reason Metcalf missed two games in 2025, was due to a NFL suspension for an altercation with a fan. This suspension was significant because the Steelers have a clause in Metcalf’s contract that states if he "fails to practice or play with the Club for any reason," including "Player's suspension by the NFL or Club for Conduct Detrimental," his guarantees "will be NULL AND VOID." This means that the Steelers could have executed that clause and voided $45 million in guaranteed money from Metcalf’s contract. But according to a report by Jay Glazer, the Steelers are not voiding the guarantees and are invested in Metcalf for the 2026 season and beyond.
Even though the Steelers chose to stand behind Metcalf this time, it does not guarantee that the Steelers would take this same action if another incident occurs with Metcalf. He has a track record of disciplinary problems with the Seattle Seahawks and he has always shown to have a temper which has costed his team with personal foul penalties. Based on Glazer’s report, I don’t expect that the Steelers would move on from Metcalf this offseason, especially since their depth at receiver is also very thin. But there is definitely a chance that the Steelers would move on from Metcalf if he has another disciplinary incident. In that case, the Steelers could easily release him based on the clause in the contract where they can void the guaranteed money. This is why based on our contract risk meter tool, we have Metcalf listed as a medium risk.
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers were perennial playoff contenders, as he never had a losing season during his tenure. I think both the Steelers and Tomlin could sense that change had to happen in Pittsburgh. In recent years, the Steelers have been good enough to make the playoffs but would disappoint and exit in the first round. This ultimately led to Tomlin stepping down as head coach, and I’m interested to see if the coaching change can lead the Steelers to a deeper playoff run.
The question for Mike McCarthy: does he go with familiarity and reunite with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, or make a trade or sign a quarterback in free agency? Maybe someone like Malik Willis? I do know one thing, and that is I would expect the Steelers to be very aggressive in the wide receiver market. They have the cap space and they desperately need some receiving options to help out their top target DK Metcalf. Most of the Steelers cap space is spent on defense. McCarthy is an offensive guy and he will be sure to make upgrades on that side of the ball this offseason. McCarthy grew up in Pittsburgh and was very emotional to become the head coach of the team he grew up rooting for. The Steelers are getting a highly motivated coach to bring another Lombardi trophy to the city of Pittsburgh.
Want to see which players face contract risk across the rest of the NFL? Check out our contract risk meter tool and keep an eye out for our upcoming series breaking down teams undergoing front-office changes.
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