A breakdown of the top five Las Vegas Raiders contracts most at risk under Klint Kubiak, using cap impact and roster context to explain who could be on the move.
The Las Vegas Raiders fired 74-year-old head coach Pete Carroll after his inaugural, and dismally disappointing, 3-14 season. Unfortunately, aside from DE Maxx Crosby and RB Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders’ roster has little to build upon. One component they do have – they are scheduled to have the 2nd most amount of cap space with $96M (per Spotrac).
The Raiders hired Seattle’s now former super bowl winning offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak. Kubiak received Head Coach interest from multiple teams, and despite the aforementioned roster challenges, he chose the Raiders job. A new Head Coach, coaching staff, and vision often result in more players at risk of no longer ‘fitting’ the new roster requirements. The following four players most likely will not be on the roster next season, along with one surprise name you may not expect.
Geno Smith was acquired by the Las Vegas Raiders for a 2025 3rd round pick (#92 overall), then Smith was given a 2-year, $75M extension, including $66.5M guaranteed. Smith was brought in due to his connection with Pete Carroll and was expected to provide some experience and stability to the quarterback room and win games. Instead, Smith had a disappointing year; he played in 15 games, 302 completions, 3,025 yards, 19 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, a QBR of 34.1, and won only 2 of his 15 starts.
According to Spotrac, Geno Smith carries a cap hit of $26.5M in 2026, with the 2 extension years remaining. I fully expect the Raiders to release Geno Smith before the new league year starts on March 13th, saving the Raiders $8M in cap space. Additionally, since Carroll is gone, Smith’s connection to the team moving forward is diminished. Based on these factors, we have Geno Smith listed as high risk on our contract risk meter tool.
Adam Butler was first brought in by the Raiders via a reserve/future contract in January of 2023. His production validated the Raiders’ choice with 52 solo tackles, 41 assisted tackles, 10 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles in his first two seasons. His efforts earned him a 3- year extension worth $16.5M, $3M signing bonus, and $11M guaranteed in March of the 2025 off-season.
As the Raiders most likely rebuild the roster, it is likely the Defensive Coordinator (Patrick Graham) is replaced. At 31 years old, I expect the Raiders to move on from Adam Butler. According to Spotrac, Butler’s cap hit is $6.5M in 2026. The Raiders could save $2M in cap space by releasing him before the new league year in March, or $3M if after the June 1st deadline. A team willing to trade for Butler might save the Raiders $4M-$5M, depending on when the trade occurs in relation to the June 1st deadline. Based on our contract risk meter tool, we list Adam Butler as a medium risk.
Devin White signed with the Las Vegas Raiders during the 2025 free agency period on a 1-year $1.1M contract. White was brought in due to his connection with Raiders GM John Spytek and his fit with Patrick Graham’s scheme. White was afforded the opportunity to compete for the starting LB spot opposite Elandon Roberts, who the Raiders signed during the 2025 free agency period.
After playing for a few teams in 2024, a rejuvenated White proved to be a great fit for the Raiders' defense. He recorded a Raiders franchise record in tackles with 174 total tackles (95 solo, 79 assisted), 2.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 1 interception. White is now an unrestricted free agent heading into the 2026 season.
Given White’s connection with John Spytek, a former teammate of Tom Brady (a Raider part-owner), and given his successful 2025 season, I could see the Raiders bringing Devin White back in 2026. Additional factors in his favor: He is fairly young at 28-years old at season start, and given the NFL teams' reduced emphasis on the linebacker position, White is relatively inexpensive.
Jeremy Chinn signed a 2-year $16.2 million contract, including a $4 million signing bonus, and $12.2 million guaranteed during the 2025 free agency period. I was nervous about how Jeremy Chinn was going to do with the Las Vegas Raiders, as he seemed to fit well with the Commanders. But Chinn produced similar stats with the Raiders, accumulating 114 tackles (51 assisted), 1 sack, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 pass deflections over 15 games.
Jeremy Chinn is now entering the final year of that 2-year contract. According to Spotrac, he is scheduled to have a cap hit of about $9.5 million in 2026. If the Raiders release Chinn either pre or post June 1st the Raiders could save around $3.3 million in cap space. The Raiders only have 3 safeties under contract, all in their final year. Given that Chinn is their most experienced (at 27), I could see the Raiders keeping him around to mentor younger defensive players they bring onboard. Plus, the Raiders have a good amount of cap space, so they won’t be motivated by the amount of cap savings they could get in return for releasing Chinn. Which is why, based on our contract risk meter tool, we list Chinn as a medium risk.
Maxx Crosby was drafted by the Raiders in the 4th round (106th overall) in the 2019 NFL Draft. Crosby flashed in his rookie year, being able to get 10 sacks in his rookie year which was impressive. But then, the next 2 years, he was unable to get back to that double-digit sack threshold. Still, the Raiders decided that he was a cornerstone player they wanted to retain and signed him to a 4-year $94 million extension in March of 2022. His two best years of his career came after signing that 4-year extension, totaling 179 tackles (66 assisted), 27 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries.
Maxx Crosby is under contract with the Raiders until 2029, as he signed another 3-year $106.5 million extension in March of 2025. According to Spotrac, Crosby is scheduled to have a cap hit of about $35.8 million in 2026. However, Crosby’s relationship with the Raiders management appears tarnished. Crosby suffered a minor knee injury, yet still wanted to play the final two games. So why did the Raiders put him on the IR instead? They had nothing to play for and had locked up the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft. To show his displeasure, Crosby took to social media and posted videos of himself playing basketball. Shortly after those videos surfaced, Crosby underwent a minor knee surgery to repair his meniscus.
How will this situation play out with Crosby and the Raiders? He has reiterated numerous times he loves the Raiders and does not want to play with another team. Klint Kubiak of course would like to have Crosby stay and be a part of this team. But has Crosby’s relationship actually been negatively affected or just overblown by the media? If the Raiders did move on from Crosby or Crosby forces his way out of Vegas, a trade would save the Raiders around $30.7 million in cap space. I don’t think Crosby is traded this off-season, he is a Raider through and through. But contractually, there is a case to be made that the Raiders should move on. Consequently, our contract risk meter tool lists Crosby as a medium risk.
The 2025 season was a massive disappointment for the Raiders. Head Coach Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith were supposed to make the Raiders competitive. They were anything but; Geno Smith played terribly and affirmed the Seahawks roster change. But the disappointing season wasn’t a total loss since the Raiders are in position to potentially get their franchise quarterback with the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. All indications are the Raiders will draft Indiana Hoosiers National Championship Winning and Offensive MVP Quarterback Francisco Mendoza.
Klint Kubiak has plenty of resources to turn this Raiders team around. As the Raiders are going to have around $100 million in cap space by the time the total cap number increases. The quarterback position will be figured out with the number one pick. The main question of the off-season for the Raiders surrounds Maxx Crosby. Will Kubiak and his staff be able to convince Crosby they can turn this team around, or does Crosby want to be traded to a contender now? This off-season will show how seriously Crosby wants to win versus staying with the Raiders and being a main pillar to the rebuild of the team.
Want to see which players face contract risk across the rest of the NFL? Check out our contract risk meter tool and keep an eye out for our upcoming series breaking down teams undergoing front-office changes.
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