Top 5 Bills Contracts at Risk Under Joe Brady

As a Bills fan, the decision to hire Joe Brady as the new head coach is an uninspiring one. The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most successful teams in the NFL while Sean McDermott was their head coach. After 9 seasons, he finished with a 98-50 record, but never advanced to Super Bowl weekend. Owner Terry Pegula decided to pull the plug because he felt they hit the proverbial “playoff wall” and, in his heart of hearts, he felt there needed to be a change. The surprising element was that general manager Brandon Beane was not relieved of his duties. He has faced a large amount of criticism for the talent he has surrounded the roster with, especially in the WR room.

With Joe Brady getting hired as the head coach, one thing is for sure: continuity. Joe Brady has been a part of the Bills staff since joining the team as a QB coach back in 2022. Bills fans hope that Joe Brady has a different vision for this team. I wanted a new voice to bring change to the team, but the Bills brass opted for the middle path.

Since Brandon Beane and Joe Brady have been with the team for so long, we may expect that there won’t be too many changes to the roster, but I beg to differ. The Bills have some aging starters, roster holes at key positions, and are scheduled to have -$9 million in cap space according to Spotrac next year.

Brady and Beane will have immense pressure this upcoming season. The Bills have been in a Super Bowl or bust mentality for quite sometime and it doesn’t help seeing their division rival, the New England Patriots, reach the Super Bowl before them after recalibrating the team after Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady’s departure so many years ago. Below are four players most likely not to be on the roster next season, along with one surprise name you may not expect.

WR Curtis Samuel

WR Curtis Samuel signed a 3 year $24 million contract with the Buffalo Bills during the 2024 free agency period, which included a $6.9 million signing bonus and $15 million guaranteed. The addition of Samuel was viewed as a familiar move, reuniting him with Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane from their time together in Carolina, where Samuel was originally drafted.

However, Samuel’s tenure in Buffalo has been lackluster. In his first season in Buffalo, he played in 14 games and recorded 46 targets, 31 receptions, 253 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown. In his second season, he played in 6 games and recorded 9 targets, 7 receptions, 81 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown.

Curtis Samuel now enters the final year of the contract he signed in free agency. According to Spotrac, his cap hit for the 2026 season is scheduled to be roughly $9.5 million. If the Bills were to release Samuel, they would save $6 million in cap savings. Curtis Samuel will be 29 entering this season, and I expect the Bills to release him. Not only for the cap savings, but for the simple fact that he has not been productive enough to deserve that contract. In our contract risk meter tool, we list Samuel as a high risk.

TE Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox has been a fan favorite for the Bills, but if most knew what his contract is, many would believe he is way overpaid. Knox was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the 3rd round (96th overall) of the 2019 NFL Draft. Knox then signed a contract extension with the team in 2022 when he signed a 4 year $53.6 million contract including $31 million guaranteed.

In hindsight, that was a staggering amount of money for Dawson Knox, but we have to put that deal into context. Knox was coming off the heels of what has been his best season with the Bills, where he played 15 games and recorded 71 targets, 49 receptions, 587 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns. Also, this was before the team decided to draft TE Dalton Kincaid in the 1st round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Since Kincaid was selected by the Bills, Knox has taken a backseat in his role with the team, and his production has waned.

Dawson Knox now enters the final year of his contract extension. According to Spotrac, his cap hit for the 2026 season is scheduled to be a whopping $17.8 million. If the Bills were to release Knox, they would save $10.4 million in cap savings. Dawson Knox will be 29 entering this season, and I expect the Bills to release him, but I would anticipate they would bring him back on a team-friendly deal. In our contract risk meter tool, we list Knox as a high risk.

S Taylor Rapp

S Taylor Rapp signed a 3 year $10.6 million contract, including close to $4.85 million guaranteed during the 2024 free agency period. Rapp was brought in to bring depth to the position as their starting safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, were aging. Rapp had starter experience with the Rams and was productive in his first two seasons with the Bills.

This past season, Rapp only played in six games and was out in IR for a persistent knee injury. Rapp never looked like himself, and I am concerned that he may not be the same player if that knee injury can’t be rehabilitated. Rapp will be entering 7th season in the league and will be 28 years old next season. According to Spotrac, he carries a cap hit of $3.7 million, and the Bills would save roughly $3 million if they released him. I expect the Bills to elect go younger at the position and to cut Rapp this offseason.

WR Keon Coleman

WR Keon Coleman has had quite the bumpy ride this past season, and it only got worse after the press conference with the media, GM Brandon Beane, and owner Terry Pegula. A question was directed to Beane and Pegula, and Pegula essentially said that Coleman was not Beane’s pick. Throughout the season, Coleman was made a healthy inactive multiple times this past season. The former 2nd round pick was supposed to be a part of the solution to a much-maligned WR position group. The WR room has been subject to a lot of frustration amongst the media and Bills fan suggesting that the front office should have done more to support QB Josh Allen.

Coleman was selected by the Bills with the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Bills could have drafted the likes of Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Ricky Pearsall, or Xavier Legette had they not traded down from the 28th pick. It would be unusual for a team to trade or release a high draft pick before they reach their 3rd year on the team, but Coleman fits the bill.

His statistics are not terrible: in his rookie year, he played in 13 games and recorded 57 targets, 29 receptions, 556 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. In his 2nd season, he played in 13 games and recorded 59 targets, 38 receptions, 404 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. Coleman has been subject to major scrutiny partially due to how much pressure the WR room is under.

The Bills would gain little by cutting or trading Coleman. According to Spotrac, if they released Coleman prior to June 1st they would lose $2.7 million. If he were to be traded, then the Bills save roughly $600,000. I believe they will trade him for late-round compensation because the relationship between Coleman and the Bills is untenable. Based on our contract risk meter tool, we list Coleman as a medium risk.

CB Taron Johnson — The Surprise Player

Taron Johnson was selected by the Bills in the 4th round (121st overall) of the 2018 NFL Draft. Johnson has been a cornerstone player for the Bills for some time. His performance led to a 2024 extension that made him one of the highest-paid nickel cornerbacks in the league, a 3 year deal worth $30 million with $17.8 million guaranteed.

Johnson largely lived up to that contract, though his play began to decline during the 2025 season. Additionally, we learned that Bobby Babich will be joining the Green Bay Packers staff. Jim Leonhard was named the Bills’ new defensive coordinator, and his defensive background has historically relied less on nickel personnel, a schematic shift that may make Johnson expendable.

According to Spotrac, Johnson has a cap hit of $11.4 million, and if the Bills were to release Johnson under a Post-June 1st designation, they would save $8.6 million in cap space. Based on our contract risk meter tool, we list Johnson as a medium risk.

What Comes Next for the Bills

The Bills have been perennial Super Bowl contenders for several seasons, yet time and again they have fallen painfully short. As a Bills fan, I understood the notion that they needed a new voice to lead the team to break this glass ceiling. In order to do that, they should have hired someone outside the organization. The Bills chose a middle-ground approach, prioritizing continuity by promoting the offensive coordinator to head coach.

Will new head coach Joe Brady make drastic changes, or will it be more of the same? This season should be illuminating, offering a clear picture of how different Brady’s vision is from McDermott’s. Even though the Bills are scheduled to have negative cap space, I expect them to be uber-aggressive and restructure contracts to create cap space to re-engineer this roster. GM Brandon Beane has been known to make splash moves such as trading up to select QB Josh Allen, signing Von Miller to an over $100 million contract, and trading for WR Stefon Diggs.

Want to see which players face contract risk across the rest of the NFL? Check out our contract risk meter tool and keep an eye out for our upcoming series breaking down teams undergoing front-office changes.