A breakdown of the top five Atlanta Falcons contracts most at risk under a new coaching staff, using cap impact and roster context to explain who could be on the move.
The Atlanta Falcons opted for a full reset this offseason: parting ways with head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot. Terry Fontenot had been the general manager since 2021 while Raheem Morris ended up coaching the team for only 2 seasons. Matt Ryan was recently named the president of football operations, replacing Rich McKay, who has held the position since 2008. We don’t yet know who will be running the front office, but the contracts currently on the roster give us a clear picture of which players could be cut, traded, or allowed to test the open market.
Anytime a front office hits the reset button, turnover is inevitable. Former high draft picks no longer have ties to the current regime and must earn their roster spots like everyone else. The benefit of the doubt disappears quickly in these situations. Below are four players most likely not to be on the roster next season, along with one surprise name you may not expect.
WR Darnell Mooney signed a 3yr $39M contract with the Atlanta Falcons during the 2024 free agency period. Mooney had a promising start in year 1 of his contract with the Falcons, where in 16 games he recorded 106 targets, 64 receptions, 992 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. However, his 2025 production came crashing down to earth when in 15 games he recorded 72 targets, 32 receptions, 443 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown.
Darnell Mooney now enters the final year of the contract he signed in free agency. According to Spotrac, his cap hit for the 2026 season is scheduled to be roughly $18.4M. If the Falcons were to release Mooney, they would save $7.4M in cap savings. Prior to the salary cap increase that we expect to come in the new league year, the Falcons are scheduled to have around $30M in cap space. With big extensions coming for stars like RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London, the new front office could choose to preserve additional cap space. Due to the Falcons' lack of WR depth, the new coaching staff may choose to keep Mooney. However, I expect Mooney to be a cap casualty, and based on our contract risk meter tool, we list Mooney as a high risk.
RB Tyler Allgeier was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons in the 5th round (151st overall) of the 2022 NFL Draft. Tyler Allgeier had a promising rookie season where he had 210 carries for 1,035 rushing yards with an impressive 4.9 average yards per carry and 4 total TD. Up until Allgeier's rookie season, they hadn't had a 1,000-yard rusher since the 2016 season, when Devonta Freeman had 1,079 rushing yards.
Allgeier's promising outlook changed drastically when the Falcons sent shockwaves around the NFL when they drafted RB Bijan Robinson 8th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. The last running back selected that high was Saquon Barkley, who went 2nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. However, Allgeier has proven himself to be a good change-of-pace back and a nice complement to Bijan. He had a strong final season of his rookie contract, scoring eight rushing TDs.
With a new front office coming in, I fully expect them to build their offense around Bijan Robinson and let Tyler Allgeier test the market. Could he come back on a team-friendly contract? Maybe. But I actually think Allgeier has sneaky value, and I wouldn't be surprised if a team offers him a contract to be their starter next year.
TE Kyle Pitts was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons with the 4th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft– the highest a tight end has ever been drafted. The previous high was TE Vernon Davis who was drafted 6th overall by the San Francisco 49ers. As expected, Pitts entered the league with enormous expectations.
Pitts had a promising rookie season, where he set an NFL TE rookie record by recording 1,021 receiving yards. He became just the 2nd rookie TE in NFL history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards, joining only Mike Ditka, who did it back in 1961. What began as a promising start quickly lost momentum: Pitts’ sophomore season was derailed by injuries, limiting him to just 356 receiving yards. The following two seasons were similarly underwhelming, as he failed to surpass 1,000 yards and scored only three and four touchdowns, respectively.
Fast forward to this past season, where we saw a glimmer of hope from Kyle Pitts flashing his uber-talent against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In that game, he had 12 targets, 11 receptions, 166 receiving yards, and 3 TDs! He became the first TE since 1996 to record at least 150 receiving yards and 3 TDs in a single game.
Pitts is a polarizing figure as the production hasn't matched the talent. And this offseason, he will become a free agent for the first time in his career. The question is will the new coaching staff open up their pocketbook to spend a ton of money on Pitts with how inconsistent he has been? I fully expect Kyle Pitts contract to break records at the TE position. Even after 5 seasons in the NFL, Kyle Pitts is still only 25yrs old who is now entering his prime. Coming into the NFL, Pitts was a WR in a TE body, and we have seen his true potential on display. If the Falcons want to keep him, they will either need to give him the franchise tag or break records for a contract at the TE position. Ultimately, I believe the Falcons will allow him to test the open market, where his upside makes him an ideal candidate to cash in during free agency. The production has been inconsistent, but teams will chase the potential.
LB Divine Deablo signed with the Atlanta Falcons during the 2025 free agency period when he signed a 2yr $14M contract, which included a $6M signing bonus and roughly $7M guaranteed. Deablo was signed to be the opposite starting LB next to LB Kaden Elliss.
In his 1st season with the Falcons, Deablo recorded 38 solo tackles, 35 assisted tackles, 1 sack, 1 fumble recovery, and 7 pass deflections in 13 games played. Deablo is entering the 2nd year of his contract, where he carries a $9M cap hit. According to Spotrac, if the Falcons were to cut Deablo prior to March 15th, they would save $6M in cap space.
With a new coaching staff coming in, we don't know what defensive scheme they intend to implement. I believe the new regime will opt to cut Deablo to take the cap savings and choose to bring in their own LB. The only reason why they will keep Deablo is that fellow starting LB Kaden Elliss is scheduled to be a free agent and if they cut Deablo then the Falcons will have to replace both starting LBs. Based on our contract risk meter tool, we list Deablo as a high risk.
Not too many years ago, the Atlanta Falcons made a splash signing when they signed S Jessie Bates III. In the 2023 free agency period, he signed a 4yr $64M contract, including an $18M signing bonus and $36M guaranteed. Since coming to Atlanta, Jessie Bates has been a leader for this team. He has been named a team captain in each of the three seasons with the Falcons from 2023 through 2025.
Not only has he brought needed leadership to a Falcons defense that desperately needed it, but he also has been a very productive player. Since joining the Falcons, he has been one of the team’s most productive defenders, sitting second in total tackles (332) and first in interceptions (16). Bates is entering the final year of his contract, where he carries a whopping $24.7M cap hit. According to Spotrac, if the Falcons were to release Bates prior to March 15th, they would save $6.5M in cap space.
Bates has been a leader for this team, but with a new coaching regime coming in, they may elect to move on from Bates. Bates is still only 28yrs old and has continued to play at a high level. I would not be surprised if Bates were cut, and we currently list him as a medium risk in our contract risk meter tool.
The Atlanta Falcons finished the 2025 season strong with a 4-game win streak. They ended up being tied for the NFC South with an 8-9 record, but due to tiebreakers, they were eliminated from the playoffs.
The biggest question for the Falcons will be what they will do at the QB position? Michael Penix was drafted 8th overall in the 2024 draft. He was the future of the franchise but after a lackluster season in 2025 and after tearing his ACL, the Falcons are left wondering where to go from here.
With no QB in place, the team will be scrambling to find the face of the franchise and determining how they intend to build around him. Front office changes bring roster turnover, and Atlanta is heading into a defining season. The Falcons have the flexibility to reshape the roster, move on from contracts that no longer fit, and build around the players who truly matter. This offseason will show just how committed Atlanta is to a clean slate.
Want to see which players face contract risk across the rest of the NFL? Check out our Contract Risk Meter Tool and keep an eye out for our upcoming series breaking down teams undergoing front-office changes.
Steve Falco
Admin HQ
