A breakdown of the top five Arizona Cardinals contracts most at risk under Mike LaFluer, using cap impact and roster context to explain who could be on the move.
The Arizona Cardinals have moved on from head coach Jonathan Gannon. Their 3-14 record for the 2025 season is their worst season in the modern era. Gannon’s three seasons as head coach finished with a record of 15-36. An interesting contrast is they retained defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, their defensive coordinator the last three seasons.
The Arizona Cardinals hired Mike LaFleur as their new head coach. LaFleur spent last season as the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams. No surprise they brought in an offensive-minded head coach, since Gannon was a defensive-minded coach. LaFleur brings that Shanahan/McVay style of offense, utilizing a zone run scheme and play action off of that run game. This scheme has been very effective over the years and is known to be very quarterback-friendly. Below are four players most likely not to be on the roster next season, along with one surprise name you may not expect.
Kyler Murray was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals in the 1st round (1st overall) during the 2019 NFL Draft. Murray burst onto the scene as a rookie, showing off his athleticism and the tools required for a dual-threat quarterback. His 2nd NFL season was his best, rushing 133 times for 819 yards, with 11 rushing touchdowns and accumulating 3,971 yards passing on 375 completions, with 26 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
Since his breakout in his 2nd year, Murray struggled to stay on the field and was unable to repeat that elite production level. According to Spotrac, Murray carries a cap hit of $52.6 million in 2026. The Cardinals currently are projected to have around $34.8 million in cap space before the anticipated cap increase takes effect in the new league year. If the Cardinals use their June 1st designation on Kyler Murray and go a different direction at quarterback, they could save $5.1 million in cap space. Murray is still under contract for the next 2 years and also has a club option in 2028.
Kyler Murray will be 29 years old when the 2026 season kicks off, with durability concerns and a production decline. I could see Mike LaFleur opting to move on from Kyler Murray and ultimately bringing in his own quarterback to run his offense. The only trouble with that idea is there is not a clear path to replace Kyler, given this quarterback draft class is pretty weak and the free agent market is not strong either. Jacoby Brissett, who stepped in for Kyler when he was sidelined due to injury, could definitely be a bridge quarterback for the Cardinals if Murray is released. Even if the Cardinals don’t end up moving on from Murray this season, it’s unlikely he finishes out the rest of his contract with the Cardinals. His dead cap hit is currently scheduled to be $7.2 million in 2027. So if he sticks around for the 2026 season, he is good as gone in 2027, given his cap situation, and the rookie quarterback class will be much stronger in 2027. Which is why, based on our contract risk meter tool, we list Murray as a high risk.
James Conner signed a $1.75 million dollar contract during the 2021 free agency period. James Conner bet on himself, taking the 1-year deal with the Cardinals after Pittsburgh let him try the free agent market. That gamble paid off as Conner had 202 carries for 752 yards; although 3.7 yards per carry is not impressive, he had 15 rushing touchdowns, 37 receptions for 375 yards, and 3 touchdowns. His performance in 2021 led him to receive a 3-year $21 million extension during the 2022 free agency period. Even after drafting running back Trey Benson in the 3rd round of the 2024 NFL Draft, they signed James Conner to a 2 year $19 million extension during the 2024 season.
James Conner is now entering the final year of that 2-year extension in 2024. According to Spotrac, his cap hit for the 2026 season is scheduled to be around $9.8 million. If the Cardinals release Conner before the new league year begins on March 15th, they could save around $7.5 million in cap space. Conner will be 31 once the 2026 NFL season begins; given the fact he never played a full season in his 9-year career, I think the Cardinals will move on from Conner. Especially coming off of a year in which he only played 3 games. This year's running back draft class is not that strong, but there are some interesting running backs that could be available during free agency. The free agency route could make sense to pair with Trey Benson heading into his 3rd year. Based on our contract risk meter tool, we have Conner listed as a high risk.
Zaven Collins was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals in the 1st round (16th overall) of the 2021 NFL Draft. After Collins didn’t produce as a 1st round pick was expected to, the Cardinals decided to decline his 5th year option. But a few months later, in the 2024 off-season, Collins signed a 2-year $14 million extension. His best statistical season followed with 57 total tackles, 5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. The 5 sacks are his career high in sacks, which is disappointing for a 1st round draft pick.
Zaven Collins is now entering the final year of that 2-year extension from 2024. According to Spotrac, his cap hit for the 2026 season is scheduled to be about $6 million. If the Cardinals were to release Collins, they could save about $4.3 million in cap space. Despite still being a young edge rusher, I think the Cardinals will release Collins and take the cap savings. This year’s defensive end draft class isn’t as talented as last year’s, but there is some decent depth in the draft for them to upgrade from Collins. Which is why, based on our contract risk meter tool, we list Zaven Collins as a high risk.
Dalvin Tomlinson signed a 2-year $29 million contract with the Arizona Cardinals, including $8.5 million in signing bonus, $15.5 million guaranteed during the 2025 free agency period. In his first season with the Cardinals, Tomlinson recorded 26 total tackles (13 assisted) and 1 sack over 17 games played in 2025.
Tomlinson is entering the final year of that 2-year extension. He turns 32 years old in a couple of weeks, and per Spotrac, he is scheduled to have a cap hit of $16.2 million in 2026. However, if the Cardinals were to use a June 1st designation on Tomlinson, they could save $14.5 million in cap space in 2026. Based on Tomlinson’s age and declining production over the last few years, I think Tomlinson will be released by the Cardinals. The Cardinals lack depth there, which would be the argument for keeping Tomlinson on the roster. But I think $16.2 million is a lot to pay a guy who is primarily a run stopper at this point in his career. They have a budding star in Walter Nolen, whom they drafted last year, and unfortunately, an injury cut his season short. I think the Cardinals are going to want to bring in some new players to surround Nolen with going forward. Based on our contract risk meter tool, we have Tomlinson listed as a high risk.
The surprise player on this list is safety Budda Baker, who was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals in the 3rd round (36th overall) in the 2017 NFL Draft. Buddha Baker is one of the best safeties in the NFL when he is on the field. Durability has been an issue for Baker throughout his NFL career. However, two out of the last three years with defensive coordinator Rallis Baker, he has stayed healthy. This past season, he had 120 tackles (63 assisted), 0.5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 1 interception, and 5 pass deflections.
Budda Baker is now 30 years old, with 2 years remaining on a 3-year $54 million dollar extension (December 2024), including a $12.2 million signing bonus, and $29.3 million guaranteed. According to Spotrac, Baker’s scheduled cap hit is about $19.2 million in 2026. The Cardinals could save $8.4 million in cap space by designating Baker as a June 1st designation, or $7.4 million if they release Baker after the June 1st deadline. If the Cardinals change defensive coordinators, releasing Baker is likelier. Given their current situation, I think Baker will be on the team in 2026. Following 2026, I think they move on without him because there is a potential out in his contract, saving around $17.8 million in cap space if they release him before the new league year starts in 2027. Based on the likelihood of the Cardinals moving on from Budda Baker not being that high, we listed Baker as a medium risk on our contract risk meter tool. Although I do think we could upgrade that risk to a high next year, based on the potential $17.8 million in cap savings.
The Cardinals' 2025 season was kind of doomed from the start, as Kyler Murray was only able to play in 5 games. Jacoby Brissett did his best trying to keep the Cardinals in games, but unfortunately, he was only able to earn one victory as the starting quarterback. After another disappointing season, LaFleur is now the 3rd head coach the Cardinals have had since Kyler Murray was drafted by the Cardinals in 2019.
The big question for the Cardinals to answer this offseason is who will be the quarterback leading the Mike LaFleur offense in 2026? Will they keep Kyler Murray and give him a chance, or move forward with a new signal caller? The upside for Murray is the lack of quarterback options to replace him long-term. This draft class is not strong, with few viable free agent quarterbacks. But if they want to give Murray one last chance, the quarterback class in 2027 is shaping up to be stronger than this year's. Especially with Trinidad Chambliss earning the 6th year of eligibility and returning to Ole Miss. This off-season will show just how committed the Cardinals are to Kyler Murray.
Want to see which players face contract risk across the rest of the NFL? Check out our contract risk meter tool and keep an eye out for our upcoming series breaking down teams undergoing front-office changes.
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