2026 QB Carousel: Who Is on the Move?

As the NFL regular season ends, 14 fan bases will prep for their playoff journey. For the other 18, there will be self-reflection and roster assessment. For the armchair GMs at Front Office Pros, the off-season is (almost) as fun as the playoffs. We will begin our offseason coverage the same way every NFL team will: an assessment of the quarterback landscape. Last offseason, we saw the following QBs hitch a ride on the QB carousel:

• QB Sam Darnold
• QB Daniel Jones
• QB Geno Smith
• QB Justin Fields
• QB Aaron Rodgers
• QB Russell Wilson 
• QB Joe Flacco

This list excludes rookies who were drafted in 2025 and former draft picks who were given a shot to start for their teams in 2025. So the question is, who is on the move this offseason? With what seems to be a lackluster QB draft class, NFL teams will focus more heavily on the free agent and trade markets.

And the days of teams being afraid of the big contracts required to land QB free agents or make QB trades seem to be over. After Sean Payton’s first year as the coach of the Denver Broncos, they decided that Russell Wilson could not successfully operate Payton's offense. They decided to utilize a Post-June 1st designated cut, which caused the Broncos to incur $85M in dead cap over two seasons (with $53M in year 1). To say this dead cap hit was unprecedented would be an understatement. The next highest dead cap hit was $40.3M when the Indianapolis Colts cut QB Matt Ryan. 

Below is the list of QBs who have been rumored to be on the move, who I think could play for another team in 2026, and how likely they are to join the carousel:

QB Tua Tagovailoa

In Week 15 of the 2025 season, the Miami Dolphins decided to bench QB Tua Tagovailoa, which added fuel to the fire that it may be time for the Dolphins to start over at the QB position. 

Since Tagovailoa was drafted by the Dolphins back in 2020, he has been their starter for the past 6 seasons with mixed results. He has a (40-31) record and has made the playoffs twice (2022, 2023). In 2022, he did not play due to an injury, but played in 2023 against the Chiefs. In both games, the Dolphins were one-and-done in the Wild Card Round.

It hasn’t been very long since Tagovailoa signed a massive extension back on July 26th, 2024, where he signed a 4yr $212.4M contract including $167.17M guaranteed with $42M as a signing bonus. Entering into the 2026 season, Tagovailoa has 3yrs remaining on his contract. Are the Dolphins willing to take a jump in the deep end of the pool and break the record for dead cap hit?

I don’t see any team trading for Tua Tagovailoa. He has excelled in Mike McDaniel’s scheme, but before that his limitations were clearly visible. No former coaches/coordinators jump out at me who would trade for Tua to be a starter, and he is too expensive to be a bridge QB. If they were to cut Tua, it has to be a Post-June 1st designated cut. Cutting Tua before June 1 would entail a whopping $99.2M dead cap hit in 2026 and the Dolphins are projected to have around $2M in cap space.

My prediction at this point is that it is a high risk. HC Mike McDaniel escaped the flames of the hot seat, and I think next season is a make-or-break year. The financial hurdles are massive, but based on how desperate the new front office is with whomever they decide to hire as the General Manager, they may just choose to bite the bullet. In order for another team to trade for him, the Miami Dolphins will have to absorb some of his contract.

Fantasy Impact

For most of his career, Tagovailoa has been a QB2. Unless you are in a deep dynasty league or a superflex league, whatever happens with him really has no impact other than affecting the Dolphins' skill players. At this point, I would say he is a deep league buy-low candidate as a solid backup or situational starter. Losing Tyreek Hill really affected this offense, and I think Tua can bounce back next season if he stays with the Dolphins but that seems unlikely.

QB Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray suffered a mid-foot sprain in Week 5 of the 2025 season against the Tennessee Titans. The foot injury lingered on, and the Arizona Cardinals decided to place Murray on IR in week 10, which ended his season. 

Since Murray was drafted by the Cardinals in 2019, he has had disappointing results with a 38-48-1 record, which includes one playoff appearance back in 2021. His one playoff start ended in a loss in the Wild Card Round that year. 

The Arizona Cardinals decided to extend Murray for 5yrs $230.5M including $159.8M with $29M as a signing bonus back on July 22, 2022. Entering into the 2026 season, Murray has 3yrs remaining on his contract. Are the Cardinals ready to hit the reset button and move on from Kyler Murray?

I believe his contract risk is high at this point. I feel it is more likely that Murray is traded, but I would not be surprised by a cut. Murray has just not been successful enough to justify the Cardinals giving him another year as the starting QB. According to Spotrac, the team acquiring Murray would inherit a $42.5M cap hit next year, but after that season, the remaining two seasons would have no remaining dead cap money. I believe teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Minnesota Vikings would be interested in acquiring Murray. One other wildcard option - the Indianapolis Colts, where he can reunite with his former QB coach Cameron Turner, who was his QB coach in the one year he made it to the playoffs (2021). 

My prediction is that he gets traded. Jonathan Gannon was fired and a new head coach will be managing the Arizona Cardinals. Even though Monti Ossenfort will remain the General Manager, I can't imagine the next head coach is going to risk his opportunity as a head coach with Kyler Muray as his starting quarterback. We already see how that turned out for Jonathan Gannon... If they decided to outright cut him, a $35.3M dead cap hit is not too big a hit to dissuade them from moving on. 

Fantasy Impact

At one point, Kyler Murray was considered a top 10 dynasty QB due to his dual-threat ability. At this point, we can feel confident that his 11 rushing TD performance in 2020 was an anomaly, which means I think his value has been overhyped for some time. Fantasy owners are disappointed year after year waiting for Murray to hit his ceiling. That said, and I know this sounds crazy, but I see Murray as a sneaky buy-low for deep leagues. If he goes to the right coaching staff who understands how to work around his limitations he still could produce at a high fantasy level. If he doesn’t go to a gifted offensive system, I want nothing to do with him. But I feel as though his value is so low right now that, depending on whether he goes to the right landing spot, he can be a borderline QB1/QB2. A 2nd round pick feels like the type of value I’d be willing to part with for him. 

Other QBs to Watch

Okay, so rapid fire on the rest of these QBs:

• Daniel Jones is a free agent, so at this time he has no contract to be traded or cut. He most likely goes back to the Indianapolis Colts, but based on the Achilles injury, will the Colts decide to go elsewhere?
• Justin Fields is a high risk, and I expect him to be cut. He was benched for Tyrod Taylor due to how ineffective he was. I think the New York Jets decide to move on and absorb the $22M dead cap hit, as they are projected to have over a $100M in cap space.
• Mark it down, Geno Smith is as good as gone. The Pete Carroll experiment failed, and the Las Vegas Raiders will take on the $18.5M dead cap hit. 
• If the Atlanta Falcons decided to cut Kirk Cousins, they would incur a $35M dead cap hit but would save $22.5M. They could split the dead cap penalties with a Post-June 1st cut. I’d say at this time, Cousins is a medium risk since who knows how long it will take for Michael Penix to recover from his torn ACL. 
• Deshaun Watson is 100% going to be on the Cleveland Browns next year. I still don’t understand this, but the Browns have restructured his contract multiple times, which kicked the can down the road. He has a $131.6M dead cap hit. There is no way on earth they do this, and no one is trading for him. 
• I think Mac Jones may be one of the top QBs discussed as a trade candidate this offseason. The new team would only have to inherit a $2.1M salary. My only question is, do the 49ers want the insurance behind Purdy? He is a medium risk. 
• With this draft class projected to be poor, could a desperate NFL team decide to trade for Anthony Richardson? The new team would get him for $5.3M and it’s a forgone conclusion that the Indianapolis Colts won’t be accepting his 5th year option this offseason. Probably unlikely, but don’t think it’s crazy.
• I would say Will Levis risk is fairly medium. Anytime you have a regime change, I feel like every player has to prove their worth. If the new coach has no use for him, does another NFL team offer a late-round pick for a flier for Levis?

The NFL is the best reality TV show on television, and part of the reason why is all of the chaos that comes every offseason. 

When you play in a dynasty league, and especially a dynasty salary cap league, offseason moves like the ones we are talking about can have a major impact on your roster planning. Check out our Contract Risk Meter fantasy tool, where we provide you with contract risks for every starter on offense and IDP for every NFL team based on their up-to-date NFL contract. 

Right now, we are purely in speculation mode. Depending on your risk tolerance, you can start to make moves for your dynasty team now based on the probability of what you think may happen. The problem with waiting is that if you wait too long… it may be too late to take advantage. Get your popcorn ready and get ready for another off-season!

Read More from Front Office Pros

What Is a Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football League?

Learn what a dynasty salary cap fantasy football league is, how it works, and why contracts and cap management create the ultimate GM experience.

Front Office Pros HQSteve Falco

Why to Try a Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football League

Discover why dynasty salary cap leagues add strategy, contracts, and real roster decisions that traditional fantasy football formats can’t match.

Front Office Pros HQSteve Falco

Apply This Strategy

Contract Risk Meter | Cap Casualty & Trade Probability Tool

View each team’s player contracts with indicators showing when a player may no longer remain on the roster due to cap-casualty risk or potential trade movement.

Front Office Pros HQAdmin HQ